Many of us have concerns that a significant economic slowdown is beginning. Our company, and myself, have been in web development since 1996. In that period we have seen several economic downturns that have impacted the industry:
- The Dot-Com Crash
- Post 9-11
- The 2008 Economic Crash
- 2020 Covid Pandemic
And in each one of them, there were very similar things that happened to the web development industry:
A Considerable Slowdown in New Site Development. Tech and Marketing budgets were cut by potential buyers, which made for a LOT less new business in the marketplace.Businesses Ending. There used to be a lot of “marginal” businesses in web development, meaning that they barely made enough money to survive. Those businesses disappeared in those economic downturns. The survivors ended up getting a little more healthy because they took over the work of these marginal businesses.
Site Maintenance Became More Important. In the early days of the Internet, building new web sites was how companies made money. But as technology became more sophisticated, and software became more competitive and therefore was updating more and more often, and the growth of security needs exploded, site maintenance became the revenue line that was most important to a lot of companies. Those that could do it stuck around and helped the clients of developers that could not do it.
A Major Change in Site Development Often Sprung From This Period. Whether it was the move from flat html to software generated websites, the incorporation of social media as part of a web site’s strategy, or the explosion in the need of mobile-friendly sites, there was often some technology improvement/change that required evolution of sites AFTER the downturn.
The Survivors Were Better Off. With the disappearance of a substantial amount of marketplace competition, the survivors had better business performance after the downturn. But they had to survive the downturn.
I cannot predict the length or severity of this possible downturn, nor the technology shifts that might come from it. (Until AI separates itself into reality over hype, it’s too early to expect that to be the change in web development. So much of it sounds just like internet hype.) And the web development industry has changed considerably over time, and includes software developers and hosting companies that provide such services. In general, the market will become much more conservative, with buyers wanting to spend less, which forces developers to do the same. That probably does not mean a lowering of prices in general, it just means that more expensive decisions are put off longer as eventualities instead of must-dos. Sobriety in spending is wise, but it will force the disappearance of a lot of companies in this space.
So, what is a web development customer to do? I would look for some characteristics for any vendor/contractor you may keep or hire:
A proven long-term business record. Have they survived a few downturns? If so, you could expect they are business savvy enough to survive this one. Are they fairly new? As unfair as it might seem, there’s little evidence to the marketplace that they will make it through this.
Developer has a dependable revenue line. Yes, you want to save money, but not as the expense of having to spend considerably more in the future because you went with someone depending on an ill-advised revenue strategy. Free is not business. In the WordPress space, quality plugins are moving from free models to premium models all the time. That’s how they can stay as quality plugins. Server companies are increasing prices. That’s how they can stay in business. Everything else related to web sites will be pursuing their revenue line as well. And if they are not – that seems pretty questionable at this point in time.
They are doing current work. If they show recent work as examples, take a look, and make sure they aren’t actually fairly old.
These are good recommendations for selecting a web maintenance partner for any time, but particularly when there is chaos in an economic downturn.